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Jobs Report Shows Crippling Unemployment Rates for Low-Skill Employees, Blacks and Hispanics
WASHINGTON, D.C. (PRNewswire) February 6, 2005 - While the most recent employment report showed more job creation in December, the 146,000 new jobs created last month fell short of economic forecasts.

The Employment Policies Institute (EPI) noted in its current Gateway Jobs analysis that despite the lower-than- expected number, payroll employment has increased by 2.7 million jobs and exceeds its most recent peak in February 2001. The nation's unemployment rate fell to 5.2%, down 0.5 points from last year and a full 1.1% below the June 2003 high.

"The overall labor market is clearly showing significant growth, yet segments of the population continue to face difficulty securing employment," said EPI research director Craig Garthwaite. "In particular, our nation's least educated and most vulnerable populations continue their struggle to enjoy the labor market success of their more skilled counterparts."

EPI noted that adult high school dropout unemployment is nearly 45% higher than the national average, 60% higher than that for high school graduates, and 212% higher than the unemployment rate of college graduates.

Labor market conditions for minorities continue to trail their white counterparts. In December, unemployment for white males was 4.4%, compared to that of a rate of 10.6% for African-American males. African-American teens suffer even more with an unemployment rate of 30.2% -- the fourth consecutive month of an unemployment rate over 30%. Hispanic teens faced an unemployment rate of 19.6%.

Over 25 states are considering proposed legislation to increase the minimum wage-a move that would worsen already crippling employment conditions for the least skilled workers. Decades of research shows that the least skilled employees in the economy are disproportionately hurt by the job loss these wage increases would create. For example, economists at Cornell University found that high school dropouts and African-American young adults suffer four times more employment loss from a minimum wage increase than their more skilled and non-black counterparts.

"Clearly, skill level and education are still critical factors in securing employment," Garthwaite said. "Legislators and policy makers should focus on initiatives that foster entry-level employment among low-skill workers and minorities. Unfortunately, increasing the minimum wage will only create more barriers to the very workers that need to acquire skills and education on the first rung of the economic ladder."

Gatewayjobs.com, a website focusing on the crisis in entry-level employment, provides regularly updated statistics detailing the employment market for entry-level employees and vital information about a host of government assistance programs designed to promote employment and economic success.


Deloitte Delivers Optimistic Economic Outlook for 2005
NEW YORK (PRNewswire) February 6, 2005 - While the 0.8 percent decline in real wages from a year ago led to a recent decline in Deloitte's Leading Index of Consumer Spending, strong financial markets, productivity growth and increasing household net worth suggest strong economic growth in 2005, according to Deloitte Research's annual state-of-the-economy report, "The Case for Continued Optimism."

"Elections tend to bring out reasons for pessimism about the economy, but that case seems to have fallen short with the incumbents retaining power," said Carl Steidtmann, chief economist of Deloitte Research and author of the report. "We have a lot of reasons to be optimistic this year, including pro- growth economic and tax policies, as well as strong financial markets."

"Productivity is probably the single most important measure of economic performance because it makes the U.S. economy more globally competitive, puts downward pressure on prices, and lifts the overall standard of living," continued Steidtmann. "The good news is that the pace of productivity growth has steadily risen in the last decade."

The index and report details ten reasons to be optimistic about the economy in the coming year, including:

  • Strong Bond Market: The slope of the yield curve remains relatively steep, leading to hefty bank margins, giving banks incentive to lend.

  • Bank Lending Optimism: The banking system is emerging from the recession of 2001 with a stronger balance sheet and much better position to lend compared to the past two recessions. Nearly 40 percent more banks are currently reporting stronger loan demand than are reporting weaker demand.

  • Rallying Stock Market: The stock market rallied following the presidential election in November, finishing up at nine percent at the close of 2004. With CEO confidence on the rebound, the rise in stocks reflects a still strong environment for profitability.

  • Productivity Growth: Beginning in 1995, the 40 year downward trend in productivity growth was broken, and the pace has steadily risen over the last decade.

  • Downward Trending Oil Prices: The long-term direction of all commodity prices adjusted for inflation is down, and the long run outlook for oil supply is improving. The short run equilibrium price for oil is approximately $40 a barrel, and the longer-term price is lower.

  • The Myth of the Housing Bubble: Robust demand and limits on supply suggest the housing market has strong upside potential on a national level. Moreover, rising home prices create a pool of cash for consumers to draw from through mortgage refinancing. In 2004, consumers withdrew $315 billion of their home equity. Severe weather in November and December has likely had a negative impact on the housing market. However, real home prices were up slightly in January, and are up more than nine percent from a year ago.

  • Increasing Household Net Worth: Household net worth through the third quarter of 2004 stood at $46.5 trillion, up 8.6 percent in the past year and more than 80 percent in the past decade.

  • Consumer Debt Levels: Despite the rapid growth in consumer debt over the past two years, rising home and equity values have increased household assets at a faster pace than the increase in debt.

  • Employment Growth: Since the beginning of 2004, the pace of employment growth has slowly improved, adding more than 2.2 million jobs in the past year. The pace of job creation is likely to exceed two percent in 2005, translating into more than 2.5 million new jobs.

  • Policy Remains Pro-Growth: With inflation as measured by CPI up 3.5 percent at the end of 2004, the real, inflation adjusted Federal Funds rate is negative, a clear sign of an accommodative monetary policy. Additionally, reductions in marginal tax rates, coupled with more favorable treatment of dividends and investment income, have given households, business and investors more incentives to work, take risks and invest.
"Stronger job growth coupled with asset appreciation will put the consumer in a position to continue their rate of spending from the past three years," says Steidtmann. "Consumer spending is largely dependent on the future direction of real wages."

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